Manufacturer Consolidation a Hot Topic
21 April 2000
Polk Finds Continued Manufacturer Consolidation a Hot Topic at NYIAS 2000 First Report In a Series From the New York International Auto Show FloorNEW YORK, April 21 The Polk Company today released the first in a series of trend reports direct from the New York International Auto Show (NYIAS) floor at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center. This first report details the survey responses Polk captured at NYIAS 2000 during press preview days (April 19-20). It also provides a sampling of additional questions being asked at the Polk Auto Trend Centers, along with a Top 5 listing of favorites from the show displays. The Polk Auto Trend Centers will be used to collect NYIAS attendee opinions throughout the 2000 show and reports will be issued on a regular basis, providing more in-depth analysis as the show progresses. Polk is a global company, delivering multi-dimensional marketing information solutions to the automotive industry to enhance the relationships consumers have with brands. Through lifetime understanding of individuals, Polk helps its clients maintain current customers, win new ones and build their brand loyalty. The Company has served the automotive industry for 78 years and is the longest-standing steward of automobile records in the United States. Founded in Detroit in 1870, Polk launched its motor vehicle statistical operations in 1922 when the first car registration reports were published. It now serves nearly every segment of the motor vehicle industry as an analytical consultant and statistician, a provider of database-marketing services, a supplier of vehicle histories and a data enabler for geographic information systems. Based in Southfield, Mich., Polk is a privately held firm that employs more than 2,500 people worldwide, currently operating in Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Holland, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. Auto Industry Will Continue to Consolidate Manufacturers attempting to operate as a single nameplate are faced with an increasingly difficult task in addressing the growing world market. As a result, the automotive industry has recently undergone a series of mergers and acquisitions, with manufacturers seeking to leverage a portfolio of brands that address consumer tastes both domestically and globally. Recent mergers have enabled several large manufacturers to address gaps in their product portfolios while adding brands with a global presence. According to results from the Polk Trend Centers at NYIAS 2000, automotive insiders believe the industry will continue to consolidate, leaving approximately 13 manufacturers worldwide by 2010. Visitors to the auto show were asked for their predictions on the number of auto companies that will exist in 2010 and what the next merger will be: -- Predictions regarding the number of worldwide manufacturers in 2010 ranged from more than 30 to less than five, with the average number predicted to be 13. This would represent a drop of more than 30% from current levels and reflects the efforts of existing manufacturers to leverage worldwide platforms and sourcing; -- Media members, manufacturer and industry representatives are uniformly consistent in their belief that the industry will include a smaller group of manufacturers, consolidated through mergers and acquisitions. What will the next merger be? Merger Candidate Predicted Buyer Percent of Respondents BMW Ford 17% BMW General Motors 11% In total, 36% of respondents believe the next merger will involve BMW. Other merger candidates included Honda, with 10% of the predictions, followed by Nissan with 7% and Fiat with 4%. Industry observers believe that BMW is currently a very attractive candidate, given the strong performance recently by its vehicles in both the luxury and SUV segments. BMW has taken an aggressive position in bringing new products to an increasingly competitive luxury market, as evidenced by its NYIAS press conference that revealed 21 new products for the present and short-term future. Lifestyle Trends Media and Auto Industry visitors to NYIAS 2000 were also asked about specific lifestyle trends related to the auto industry: Which New York Personality Best Describes Your Driving Personality? David Letterman 22% Jerry Seinfeld 22% Howard Stern 12% Katie Couric 8% Rosie O'Donnell 8% Have You Talked on the Phone in Your Vehicle? Never Occasionally Frequently Media Visitors 18% 39% 43% Auto Industry Visitors 19% 28% 54% More than 80% of media and auto industry visitors to NYIAS 2000 talk on the phone in their car or truck, while interestingly, a large percentage favor a ban on cell phone use while driving. Do You Favor a Ban on Cell Phone Use While Driving? Yes No Media Visitors 44% 56% Auto Industry Visitors 32% 68% As of 10 a.m. April 21, 2000 *Top 5 leaders based on voting at the Polk Auto Trend Centers Concept Vehicle: Minivan/Full-size Van: 1. Jaguar F-Type Concept 13% 1. Chrysler PT Cruiser 19% 2. Chrysler 300 Hemi 10% 2. Honda Odyssey 11% 3. GMC Terradyne 10% 3. Chrysler Town & Country 8% 4. Chevrolet SSR 7% 4. Mazda MPV 8% 5. Kia Rio SV Concept 7% 5. Dodge Caravan 8% Exhibit: Pickup Truck: 1. Audi 15% 1. GMC Sierra 16% 2. Saab 13% 2. Toyota Tundra 16% 3. BMW 8% 3. Chevrolet Silverado 14% 4. Chrysler -Plymouth 8% 4. Ford F-Series 12% 5. Cadillac 5% 5. Nissan Frontier 8% Sports Car: Prestige Luxury Car: 1. Porsche Boxster 13% 1. Jaguar XJ8 17% 2. Porsche 911 12% 2. BMW 7 Series 11% 3. Dodge Viper 8% 3. Infiniti Q45 11% 4. BMW M5 7% 4. Mercedes-Benz S-Class 11% 5. BMW M Roadster 6% 5. Audi A8 9% Luxury Car: SUV: 1. Cadillac Deville 13% 1. BMW X5 11% 2. Lincoln LS 13% 2. GMC Yukon 7% 3. Audi A6 7% 3. Hummer 7% 4. BMW 3 Series 7% 4. Lincoln Navigator 7% 5. Mercedes-Benz CLK 7% 5. Toyota Sequoia 5% Midsize Car: Small Car: 1. Volkswagen Passat 14% 1. Volkswagen New Beetle 24% 2. Honda Accord 12% 2. Ford Focus 22% 3. Volkswagen Jetta 12% 3. Nissan Sentra 9% 4. Volvo S40 12% 4. Dodge Neon 7% 5. Pontiac Grand Prix 10% 5. Honda Civic 7%